Monday, June 05, 2006

Manjoo Critique in Salon is Superficial and Erroneous Nonsense

In his June 2, 2006 Salon article “Was the 2004 Election Stolen? No”, Farhad Manjoo claims to have “thoroughly debunked” a June 15, 2006 article in Rolling Stone by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: “Was the 2004 Election Stolen?”.

As one of the (applied) statisticians cited in Kennedy’s article, I find that Manjoo’s “debunking” is either superficial spin that is easily refuted by adding more detail to Kennedy’s already very long piece, or simply factually erroneous. I will focus on the Manjoo points that relate to official return and exit poll data - my particular area of expertise.

a) Making the point that voters sometimes do vote more often for a “down ticket” candidate is hardly a “rebuttal” of the 12 County Ellen Connally “anomaly”. First of all this was not a normal election but rather one of the hardest fought Presidential races in recent history in a key battleground state. Moreover, Connally was an under-funded and largely unknown African American, liberal, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, anti-death penalty, woman from Cleveland, and all of these counties are far from Cleveland. But even if we disregard this, anybody who wishes to check the numbers posted on the Secretary of State of Ohio’s official website will find that: a) nine out of only 14 counties (out of a total of 88 counties in Ohio) where Bush did abnormally well (over 43% better) relative to Moyer (the Republican Supreme Court nominee) just happen to be part of the same 12 counties where Kerry inexplicably did worse than Connally, b) this was not a result of voters in these counties switching from Moyer to Connally as Connally’s vote is worse than the Ohio county average in all but one of these counties and Moyer’s vote is better than the county average in all but one of the 12, c) the “lost Kerry” vote of 81,599 (relative to the average Kerry/Connally ratio) just happens to be just about equal to the “excess Bush” vote of 75,766 (relative to the average Bush/Moyer average in the 12 counties), and d) when one looks at the county by county pattern of “lost” Kerry votes to “excess” Bush votes, they match almost perfectly in their orders of magnitude – see the table below:





As Kennedy notes such an approximately 80,000 vote shift from Kerry to Bush would have given Bush an additional 160,000 votes, more than enough to steal an election which Bush won by about 119,000 votes. In other words, just this one “anomaly” is enough to support a “stolen election” hypothesis and I challenge anyone to come up with a plausible explanation of this set a)-d) of remarkable statistical “coincidences” as reflecting anything other than a pattern of vote shifting!

b) Manjoo’s claims that exit polls are not always accurate and that Mitfosky has an “explanation” for the large discrepancies (that he acknowledges were both highly significant statistically and the largest since 1988 in the January report) are both irrelevant when one considers the pattern of the exit poll discrepancy in Ohio – see graph below:




These are “within-precinct discrepancies” or ((Kerry -Bush Official Vote) minus (Kerry – Bush Exit Poll shares)) for each of the 49 precincts for which exit polls were taken in Ohio based on data released by the Election Science Institute in a report in which Mitofsky is listed as an “assisting author”. (Note that there are not 49 bars as someprecincts have the same official Kerry vote share so that the bar is an average WPD.) Negative WPD reflects large Kerry exit poll “overstatements” relative to official vote counts. Note that almost all of the discrepancies are negative (against Kerry). In fact, as Kennedy reports, 20 of the 22 statistically significant discrepancies (large enough so that they could not plausibly be the result of random sampling error) are against Kerry. But even more striking is the pattern. On the right side in “high Kerry” precincts (above 57% official vote count – right of the red vertical line) there is a more or less random pattern of Bush (positive) and Kerry (negative) discrepancies, whereas on the left side (below 57% official Kerry vote – left of red line) almost all of the discrepancies (and all of the statistically significant discrepancies) go against Kerry. Moreover the precincts on the left are densely clustered whereas they are more dispersed on the right.

This strikingly non-uniform pattern cannot be explained by either large but “unbiased” (not one-sided) exit poll discrepancies – the pattern on the right, or by a “reluctant Bush voter response to the exit Poll” (“rBr” - Mitofsky’s hypothetical explanation) as this would not even produce the pattern on the left, not to mention the un-biased discrepancy on the right. Those who have been following the 2004 exit poll debate know that rBr would produce a “U” shaped pattern of discrepancies that are larger in more competitive precincts and taper off to nearly zero in highly partisan precincts. There is no such pattern on the left of the graph. But the pattern displayed is perfectly consistent with “vote shifting” from Kerry to Bush that would “move” precincts by their official vote count to the left thus producing large negative Kerry WPD and much smaller Bush WPD, and a clustering of precincts on the left. In fact Manjoo’s (or Lindeman’s) calculations of overall exit poll response averages are simply mathematically wrong, as they don’t take into account the larger proportion of Kerry or Bush voters in the “high Kerry” or “high Bush” precincts respectively – for accurate exit poll response rate estimates, and an explanation of why Mitofsky’s data contradicts his own “rBr” hypothetical see NEDA reports.

c) Manjoo’s claim that Mitofsky’s “rBr” hypothetical has not been decisively disproved is bunk. We applied an “optimal” (in the sense that this explained the WPD in more precincts than any other level of “rBr”) 59% to 50% excess Kerry to Bush voter completion rate to the Ohio data and found that 30% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts still had significant discrepancy, that these were still overwhelmingly against Kerry (11 out of 15) resulting in a 4.3% WPD against Kerry that was still more than double Bush’s 2.1% margin of victory in Ohio – see NEDA January report.

d) Finally, Manjoo’s claim that WPD’s in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico were “not outside the margin of error” depends on how one calculates the “margin of error”. In particular, based upon a very liberal 30% “cluster factor” increase in the margin of error proposed (after the election) by Mitfosky, (and a doubling of the publicly posted sample size recently revealed by Mitofsky – see Baiman June 5, 2006 AAPOR presentation Free Press 6/5/06 posting) there was only about a 1 in 1,929 chance for the approximately 6.8% (weighted statewide) WPD in Ohio. This is well over any reasonable margin of error (typically set at about 1 in 20). Moreover, even using this very liberal margin of error, the odds of the Kerry exit poll discrepancies being as large as they were in the three key battle ground states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania simultaneously (and not just any random three states) is less than 1 in 182,600,000 (because of sample size doubling these "virtually impossible" odds are even lower than have been previously reported).

In short Manjoo’s “debunking” of the official vote and exit poll analysis parts of he Kennedy article is superficial and erroneous nonsense. Moreover, we have been through this with Manjoo and many of the people that he cites before. He and they either do not understand the relevant statistics and mathematics of rigorous exit poll analysis and should not be reporting or prognosticating on this topic, or they simply refuse to accept their errors of interpretation and understanding.

43 Comments:

Blogger Febble said...

I note, Ron, that you have as yet responded to none of my comments on your Ohio paper, a version of which you presented to AAPOR, at a panel in which, as you know, I was the discussant. I have made these comments to you repeatedly, and have now assembled them into a review here:

http://www.geocities.com/lizzielid/TheGunIsSmoking_Revi...

Your paper, both in the version cited by Kennedy, and the updated version presented at AAPOR, contains, in my view, serious flaws. I am more than happy to read any response or rebuttal you may have to my criticisms, but to ignore them seems odd from one who writes:

He and they either do not understand the relevant statistics and mathematics of rigorous exit poll analysis and should not be reporting or prognosticating on this topic, or they simply refuse to accept their errors of interpretation and understanding.


I would be delighted to read any rebuttal of my comments. But I do not think you are entitled to ignore them.

Elizabeth Liddle

12:41 AM  
Blogger Febble said...

Another point, Ron:

You write:

anybody who wishes to check the numbers posted on the Secretary of State of Ohio’s official website will find that: a) nine out of only 14 counties (out of a total of 88 counties in Ohio) where Bush did abnormally well (over 43% better) relative to Moyer (the Republican Supreme Court nominee) just happen to be part of the same 12 counties where Kerry inexplicably did worse than Connally.

Do you really find it inexplicable that where the Bush/Moyer ratio was high, the Kerry/Connally ratio was low?

Have you checked the algebra?

1:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Febble and Lindeman resspond to your post on DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=431591&mesg_id=431591

5:54 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ron -

Thank you for this!

But: WHAT is "WPD"? I don't know, and I don't think you spelled it out for us dummies. I think you would have to elaborate on your technical explanation, making it about three times longer, for it to sink in for the average reader. Kennedy certainly did his best to do this in his article, and succeeded in capturing the essence of the statistical analyses, I think.

Has anyone graphically examined the president vs. judge vote-ratios in every county, and by regions of counties, in a way that could be clearly shown in pictures? The statewide spreads between votes for U.S. president and votes for Ohio judge need to get spelled out to the nth degree, I think. We need the Bush vote totals vs. "non-partisan" Ohio judge vote totals (both candidates) shown for every county and region compared to the whole-state spreads for same. And then we need the same for the Kerry vote totals vs. "non-partisan" Ohio judge vote totals for comparison [similar to but much more in-depth than the chart you included; maybe with Kerry numbers listed in the left column, Bush numbers listed in the right column, and "non-partisan" judge breakdowns listed in the center, county by county, with subtotals]. Perhaps that information is already out there - I certainly haven't looked for it very hard. Maybe I'll try to tackle part of that analysis myself.

A lot of people are only now tuning in to this issue. So the well-informed need to try to backtrack their explanations and start from the beginning for the benefit of the uninformed who are now paying attention, time-consuming and laborious though that is.

Thank you so much for lending your public credibility to the search for truth, with this educated rebuttal to Manjoo's intellectually dishonest screed.

10:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just answered my own question:

You did identify the meaning of "WPD" -- you just didn't point out that you were doing so, so I missed it the first couple of times.

"WPD" = "Within-Precinct Discrepancies" of the exit polls.

That WPD/exit poll discrepancies graph is quite revealing. [It represents 49 Ohio precincts and shows how each precinct's certified vote-count varied from the information the precinct's exit poll obtained, by candidate, if I understand it correctly.]

10:47 AM  
Blogger Febble said...

OK, let's take another one.

Ron writes:

"Those who have been following the 2004 exit poll debate know that rBr would produce a “U” shaped pattern of discrepancies that are larger in more competitive precincts and taper off to nearly zero in highly partisan precincts."

As Ron must know, what would produce a "U" shaped pattern (actually an asymmetrically U shaped pattern, but I'll come back to that) is a uniform ratio between the rate at which Kerry votes were represented by responses in the poll, and the rate at which Bush votes were represented by responses in the poll. Both vote-count error and polling error could equally result in this ratio failing to be 1:1

So the ratio provides a measure of "bias" which can equally index fraud or selection/response bias. And if the ratio (whatever its cause) is UNIFORM it will generate an assymmetric "U" plot with respect to vote-share.

However, if either fraud, or selection/response bias is non-uniform - for example if either has a normal distribution, which most things do, even things like deliberate fraud, then you will not see a "U" shaped pattern. You will see a "family" of "U" shapes, which will be distributed roughly like a football. And because the "U" are assymmtric, if you draw a regression line through the plot, it will have a slope - the WPD values will more negative at the Bush end of the plot.

Now, as Ron says, at the extreme end of the plot, the values will approach zero. However, as you come in from the ends of the plot they will become more negative more rapidly as you leave the high Bush end than as you leave the high Kerry end. You would therefore expect to see, regardless of the cause of the discrepancies, a plot somewhat like the one Ron has drawn (although it would be helpful if he didn't insist on pooling precincts with the same vote-share).

Be that as it may. The point, as I am sure Ron must realise, is that the presence or absence of a "U" shape tells you only whether the cause of the discrepancy was uniform or not. It does not tell you the cause. And as non-response bias is no more likely than fraud to be uniform, the plot tells you very little about fraud.

12:20 PM  
Blogger Ron said...

Febble,

1) Checked the algebra many times and you can to - spreadsheet is at Freepress.org.

2) Also checked Moyer to Connally substitution - there is none. Vote for Moyer is above average and vote for Connally is below average in all but one of these precincts - read the details.

3) Do I find it strange - you bet I do and so should anyone else who is being rational about this! - read RFK response to Manjoo. It is virtually impossible that voters would vote for Connally and not for Kerry. It is even more virtually implausible that in the very same counties Bush voters would have huge outlier votes relative to Moyer (with no apparent substitution of one for the other).
It is even more implausible that the numbers would line up the way they do!

Your other attempts (as usual) to a make a huge deal about tiny issues (the "u" shape doesn't exactly go to zero - its a tiny bit asymmetrical) are quite irrelevant to the main points. The data as a whole (right and left side) together clearly show no "u" shape of any kind!

Sorry Febble but I've long since dismissed your objectivity in this - you kick up dust where ever and however you can to obfuscate and confuse. The fact that you've been on Mitofsky's payroll doesn't help your claims to objectivity either!

9:28 AM  
Blogger Febble said...

Thanks for your response, Ron.

Well, the point of my algebra question was simply that for entirely algebraic reasons, because Kerry's voteshare is a function of Bush's vote, and Moyer's voteshare is a function of Connally's, there will be an inbuilt tendency for the Bush/Moyer ratio to covary with the Kerry/Connally one. In other words the finding that Bush/Moyer is high where Kerry/Conally is low is precisely what one would expect, whatever one thinks about the underlying causality, which may, or may not, be indicative of fraud.

Back to those U's: Ron, how can I say this more clearly:

1. Both uniform fraud and uniform bias will produce a U.

2. Distributions of fraud or bias will NOT produce a U, but an ovoid distribution of datapoints with maximum variance in even precincts and minimum variance at the extremes.

3. In the presence of either fraud or nonsampling error, this ovoid will have a slight tilt, therefore:

4. A regression line drawn through the datapoints will tend to have a slope.


These are scarcely "tiny issues" Ron - a large chunk of your case appears to depend on them not being true, but unfortunately they are, as anyone who doubts my objectivity can easily verify. The fact that I undertook a contract to conduct analyses of the exit poll data for Mitofsky (I should make it clear that I am not "on his payroll") does not, I'm afraid, make them any less true.

But I should also - full disclosure - say that I believe that American democracy is seriously broken and requires urgent reform. I think both you and I, Ron, would agree that the systematic disenfranchisement of those who have most to gain from a Democratic administration is a scandal that is still shamefully ignored, and that the crass vulnerability, lack of transparency, and sheer laxity governing the means by which Americans vote is something that erodes democracy directly, by jeopardising the consent of the governed.

And so my sole motive in seeking the truth about the 2004 election is to ensure that the case that is made for reform is watertight, and not built on evidence that can be easily rebutted. The exit polls, in my view, are the "proportionally spaced font" of the election reform case. The case is overwhelmingly strong, but risks being exposed to ridicule when arguments are made that simply do not hold water. I remain convinced that your arguments about the exit poll evidence in Ohio are only too far from being "virtually irrefutable".

This is why I refute them. We need better.

3:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dr Baiman, I moved your comments you posted on DU to it's own thread to draw attention to the content. I work w Fitrakis and Arnebeck and have done the same for their work. Here it is:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x432402

11:48 AM  
Blogger Ron said...

Thank you anonymous!

7:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Something is really weird with the numbers in the 50th district runoff election (the Busby one). The Independent candidate got 5318 votes, and the Libertarian got 2201 votes.

But the counts for ALL the other Libertarian and Independent candidates for ALL other state-wide positions from ALL of San Diego county (which is 5 districts total (49-53), not just the 50th district) are MUCH lower, with Independents getting from about 2350 – 2650 votes, depending on the race, and Libertarians getting from about 1700 – 1800 votes, depending on the race.

50th District Run-off Results: (totals current as of June 9, 2006, 16:59:21; about 35455 absentee/provisional ballots still to be counted; Results from http://www.sdvote.org/election/governor.xml)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 69617 49.51%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 63489 45.15%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 5318 3.78%
PAUL KING - LIB 2201 1.57%

Other statewide elections – counts are the total votes cast for each candidate by ALL of San Diego county (not just the 50th district; San Diego County has 5 House districts: 49 – 53).

In the Senate Race:
DON J. GRUNDMANN - AIP (Independent) 2438 100.00%
MICHAEL S. METTI - LIB 1745 100.00%

In the Governor race:
EDWARD C. NOONAN - AIP Independent 2340 100.00%
ART OLIVIER - LIB 1727 100.00%

Lieutenant Gov: votes from San Diego County
JIM KING - AIP Independent 2431 100.00%
LYNNETTE SHAW - LIB 1727 100.00%

Secretary of State:
GLENN MC MILLON, JR. - AIP 2649 100.00%
GAIL K. LIGHTFOOT - LIB 1782 100.00%

Controller:
WARREN M. CAMPBELL - AIP 2458 100.00%
DONNA TELLO - LIB 1772 100.00%

Treasurer
E. JUSTIN NOONAN - AIP 2537 100.00%
MARIAN SMITHSON - LIB 1767 100.00%

Attorney General:
KENNETH A. WEISSMAN - LIB 1752 100.00%

Insurance Commissioner:
JAY EARL BURDEN - AIP 2337 100.00%
DALE F. OGDEN - LIB 1777 100.00%

Also posted at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2671568

12:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Something is really weird with the numbers in the 50th district runoff election (the Busby one). The Independent candidate got 5318 votes, and the Libertarian got 2201 votes.

But the counts for ALL the other Libertarian and Independent candidates for ALL other state-wide positions from ALL of San Diego county (which is 5 districts total (49-53), not just the 50th district) are MUCH lower, with Independents getting from about 2350 – 2650 votes, depending on the race, and Libertarians getting from about 1700 – 1800 votes, depending on the race.

50th District Run-off Results: (totals current as of June 9, 2006, 16:59:21; about 35455 absentee/provisional ballots still to be counted; Results from http://www.sdvote.org/election/governor.xml)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 69617 49.51%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 63489 45.15%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 5318 3.78%
PAUL KING - LIB 2201 1.57%

Other statewide elections – counts are the total votes cast for each candidate by ALL of San Diego county (not just the 50th district; San Diego County has 5 House districts: 49 – 53).

In the Senate Race:
DON J. GRUNDMANN - AIP (Independent) 2438 100.00%
MICHAEL S. METTI - LIB 1745 100.00%

In the Governor race:
EDWARD C. NOONAN - AIP Independent 2340 100.00%
ART OLIVIER - LIB 1727 100.00%

Lieutenant Gov: votes from San Diego County
JIM KING - AIP Independent 2431 100.00%
LYNNETTE SHAW - LIB 1727 100.00%

Secretary of State:
GLENN MC MILLON, JR. - AIP 2649 100.00%
GAIL K. LIGHTFOOT - LIB 1782 100.00%

Controller:
WARREN M. CAMPBELL - AIP 2458 100.00%
DONNA TELLO - LIB 1772 100.00%

Treasurer
E. JUSTIN NOONAN - AIP 2537 100.00%
MARIAN SMITHSON - LIB 1767 100.00%

Attorney General:
KENNETH A. WEISSMAN - LIB 1752 100.00%

Insurance Commissioner:
JAY EARL BURDEN - AIP 2337 100.00%
DALE F. OGDEN - LIB 1777 100.00%

Also posted at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2671568

12:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Something is really weird with the numbers in the 50th district runoff election (the Busby one). The Independent candidate got 5318 votes, and the Libertarian got 2201 votes.

But the counts for ALL the other Libertarian and Independent candidates for ALL other state-wide positions from ALL of San Diego county (which is 5 districts total (49-53), not just the 50th district) are MUCH lower, with Independents getting from about 2350 – 2650 votes, depending on the race, and Libertarians getting from about 1700 – 1800 votes, depending on the race.

50th District Run-off Results: (totals current as of June 9, 2006, 16:59:21; about 35455 absentee/provisional ballots still to be counted; Results from http://www.sdvote.org/election/governor.xml)

BRIAN BILBRAY - REP 69617 49.51%
FRANCINE BUSBY - DEM 63489 45.15%
W. GRIFFITH - IND 5318 3.78%
PAUL KING - LIB 2201 1.57%

Other statewide elections – counts are the total votes cast for each candidate by ALL of San Diego county (not just the 50th district; San Diego County has 5 House districts: 49 – 53).

In the Senate Race:
DON J. GRUNDMANN - AIP (Independent) 2438 100.00%
MICHAEL S. METTI - LIB 1745 100.00%

In the Governor race:
EDWARD C. NOONAN - AIP Independent 2340 100.00%
ART OLIVIER - LIB 1727 100.00%

Lieutenant Gov: votes from San Diego County
JIM KING - AIP Independent 2431 100.00%
LYNNETTE SHAW - LIB 1727 100.00%

Secretary of State:
GLENN MC MILLON, JR. - AIP 2649 100.00%
GAIL K. LIGHTFOOT - LIB 1782 100.00%

Controller:
WARREN M. CAMPBELL - AIP 2458 100.00%
DONNA TELLO - LIB 1772 100.00%

Treasurer
E. JUSTIN NOONAN - AIP 2537 100.00%
MARIAN SMITHSON - LIB 1767 100.00%

Attorney General:
KENNETH A. WEISSMAN - LIB 1752 100.00%

Insurance Commissioner:
JAY EARL BURDEN - AIP 2337 100.00%
DALE F. OGDEN - LIB 1777 100.00%

Also posted at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2671568

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sorry about the multiple posts; it didn't seem to be publishing!

12:21 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

In the 2004 general election, the LIB and IND candidates for the 50th dist House seat got a lot more votes than was the total for all LIB and IND candidates in the Primary.

This suggests the 2006 difference between the Primary and run-off is not so strange.

===========2004 primary results.==========
http://www.co.san-diego.ca.us/voters/Eng/archive/200403...
50th dist House seat
a total of 1037 votes were cast for IND in the 50th district
a total of 804 votes were cast for LIB

======Comparing 2004 primary to 2004 general election=================
http://www.co.san-diego.ca.us/voters/Eng/archive/200411...
2004 general election
50th dist House seat
a total of 4723 votes were cast for IND in the 50th district
a total of 3486 votes were cast for LIB

(I think this comparison is more valid than the one I did previously for all the state-wide offices)

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